The jeep sat on the lift all night last night, after I ran it for an hour or so yesterday, and, sure enough, there was a fresh puddle on the floor this morning under the transfer case. I tied a nut to a piece of string to use as a plumb bob, and traced the drip right back to the drain plug.


So, I pulled the pan off and will replace it with another one.
As far as the engine, no puddles this morning, but there still seems to be a lot of oil between the pan and the skid plate.